We saw some huge volatility yesterday – Dow down 100s of points and then to close almost up 300 points. The tech sector still was under the pressure of AAPL and GOOG getting smacked down pretty hard. We “Hope” that was the bottom and now we are on the road to recovery, but “hope” is an oxymoron strategy – one day rally doesn’t mean everything is fine. It is still prudent to hedge – even if you decided to pick a bottom at this point. We are still facing a credit problem, housing slump, etc. The daily fluctuations of the market (up or down) doesn’t mean that the economy has been resolved one way or another – so stay vigilant. Hope is good – but don’t put your money on it.
As I mentioned yesterday in the Support/Resistance section is to WATCH the RUT – which has done better than the narrower bases as far as finding a bottom. This gives us a sense of what the broader market is doing and is not affected by any one stock (like the NDX, INDU, or even the SPX) – so while it is not the top blue chips it is the rest of the market for the most part. While we didn’t get above 700, we could today and this could show some good support areas for the market as a whole.
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Insurers and Credit Ratings
Moody’s, S&P, and other credit ratings are doing some internal reviews about how some of these AAA credit rated products are failing. They seemed shocked?!? Already fingers are pointing at deception on the part of the lending and insurance agency’s = obviously to say “It wasn’t our fault”. Again – people not willing to take accountability and responsibility. I always found it a little disconcerting that a company PAYS to have their credit rated, isn’t there a little bit of incentive to give someone a good rating since they are paying for it. Reminds me of a story of a student paying for grades!
Regardless – the ratings are falling under scrutiny since many of these highly rated products are failing. The problem is even bigger – since most pension funds require financial products to meet a specified rating to qualify for an investment. Now these pension funds are losing millions and in some case billions of dollars. Because the credit rating was bogus. Who’s fault? At this point I think Moody and their ilk have to take some responsibility – regardless of any manipulation by the product or company they are rating. They need to do their due diligence.
More news is getting focused on this because more products are starting to crack (or fail) additionally the stop-gap measure – the insurance companies of these products (bonds, structured products, etc.) are also failing. So the insurance purchased on these products is no good. I think this will credit trepidation in the future as to the credit rating and whether these products are insured (hedged) efficiently.
Anyway – it would seem the Bond Insurers are the next in line for a bail out.
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Jobless Claims
It would seem that the economy is not that bad off – if we look at the jobless claims which unexpectedly dropped by 1,000 to 301,000. Economist expected Jobless claims to rise by 25,000 (the avg based on 39 economist polled by Bloomberg). The reason it seems off is that most economist have expected more job lay-offs in the housing and construction sector, additionally the announcements of job cuts from the mortgage, financial, and banking have ramped up. Economist stated on Bloomberg this morning, “The numbers are lagging, while the job cuts have been announced it will not be reflected in the number until we move into the next quarter, but we didn’t expect the jobless claims to drop!” However – if you read my essay on the CPI (which includes a section on how the government reports jobs – well it’s really not that surprising. Bank of America is laying off 1,000s of jobs – which was announced. Citigroup is looking to cut over 10,000 jobs. So there is job loss in some sectors.
The market reaction in the pre-open has not been that volatile from these numbers – mainly because we already got the 75bps rate cut. However, if that had not transpired – we may of seen more volatility.
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Futures Pre-Open
We saw a fairly strong rally in the futures in the pre-open. Which was leading the cash by a few points. The Arb traders have been selling futures into the opening and we are seeing a pull-back – as they look to purchase the basket and capture the spread. We are still seeing a slightly strong opening – but it will be any ones guess after the market – expect volatility.
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Support/Resistance
We saw a great rally heading into the close – causing more psychological rather than fundamental (via trading/GTC/program) support. However – keep an eye on the close.
INDU 12,000 / 12500 (we are above 12,000 and 12,250 seems like a good middle or low level support. However we really need to get back above 12,500 were we broke down from to see the return of general strength to the blue chips.)
NDX 1700 / 1800 (We almost got back to the previous close level – but AAPL and GOOG drove the sector into the toilet. And AAPL is looking lower at the opening.)
SPX 1300 / 1350 (Almost back to 1350 – which is a good sign – let’s close above it before we start cheerleading.)
RUT 700!!! (We saw a solid rally in the broader market back towards 700 – getting above and closing above 700 is a clear sign that the market is getting broader support)
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Conclusion
The euphoric rally was optimistic that the worse is behind us, but I don’t think we are close to getting out of the woods and would expect continuing huge up and down swings in the market. Don’t be surprised for another 300 point rally or fall in the INDU. We also had a lot of short-interest in the market and it was severely over-sold. The rally was driven by the shorts covering and the rumor of the bond insurers getting bailed out. However we may see a continued rally from the employment numbers – but I think we will probably retest the lows sometime in the near future – so that means HEDGE.
STORY:
My father was visiting last night and as you have read I am not impressed at all with his financial advisor. But now he dropped another BOMB on me. What I am about to tell you is something I have heard several times from novice or ignorant investors, so I usually ignore this. However, this came from the mouth of my grandmother’s financial advisor. My father had mention his concerned about the weak dollar (dropping against other currencies) and inflation, the response from her financial advisor, “You earn dollars and spend dollars so it doesn’t matter.” I nearly fell out of my chair! In all my 20 years of being in the financial markets I have never heard a professional say something as idiotic as that! I told my dad if you go to a mechanic and say you are concerned about the oil light coming on and he tells you “You buy gas and it runs on gas, so it doesn’t matter.” – well you would find a new mechanic.
You may never travel overseas – but yes the weak dollar and inflation does affect you.
Quick Simple Course:
Simple Lesson 1: Energy Prices
If you earn $100 and gas cost $2 a gallon and you fill a 10 gallon tank with gas, that is 20% of your earned income going to energy.
If gas price rises from to $3 a gallon and you fill a 10 gallon tank with gas, that is 30% of your earned income going to energy. That is real inflation. Pickens estimates that oil has about a $5 premium in it just from the falling dollar.
Simple Lesson 2: Bond Investing
If American Investor A buys a US bond for 5% and American investor B buys a Euro Bond for 5%. At the end of the year the US dollar falls 10% to the Euro. Which investor has made more money? Again – currency rates, inflation, does matter.
Simple Lesson 3: Business Model = Shopping
If retailer buys their tube socks from China (after converting dollars to the local currency) for $1 to sell it for $2 in the US. His revenue is $2 but his profit (margin) is $1. If the dollar falls and now it costs the retailer $2 to buy tube socks from China (after currency conversion) and has to raise his price to $2.25 to see any profit – his revenue is $2.25, but his profit (margin) has shrunk to $.25. Yeah – the consumer feels the weak dollar at retailers – since over 80% of merchandise purchase comes from overseas – prices go up with inflation.
Simple Lesson 4: Inflation vs. CD investing
If the government reports inflation at 4% and you buy a CD at 3% - did you make money at the end of the year?
People forget that the dollar is NOT about face value, it’s about buying power. What does that $1 buy? It’s buying power that matters – that is all.
So if you can feel, see, and measure inflation shouldn’t your financial advisor take that under consideration when making investment decisions. If he is ignoring that risk and not planning on how to protect or increase returns to BEAT the rate of inflation (via weak dollar, currencies, energy, etc.) he really is doing you a disservice.
I am becoming more and more concerned (dealing with my father) that many financial advisors out there really don’t know anything other than playing “go fish” with some mutual funds and they actually believe that diversification is risk management – it is NOT! It is an investment strategy – not risk management.
I point this lesson out because 99% of the people that are getting this morning market preview are professional traders and KNOW everything I just said. The reason that I point it out – maybe it’s time that you sit with your parents and grandparents to make sure their financial advisor is not a total idiot like my father’s or my grandmother’s. I wish I would of spent time with my father years ago before waiting. It’s time that we – the professionals take the time to sit with family members to explain to them ways to hedge their investments, questions they SHOULD be asking, and maybe helping them find a Financial Advisor that care more about investing than assets under management.
The Financial Advisor / Brokerage business model has changed over the last 2 decades from a commission model to assets under management. These new financial advisors take courses on how to GATHER assets rather than learn how to make investment decisions. They have NO motivation to learn anything because they get paid the 1% whether they do anything or not. I am not saying they are all bad – but just like searching for a doctor, mechanic, etc. you need to find one that is knowledgeable, wise, and educated – not just a NICE GUY. If you went to a doctor about your cancer and he said we only use radiation, we don’t believe or know how to operate or any other form of treatment because we are conservative. You would most likely go to another doctor.
If a Broker or Financial advisor says we don’t do options, ETFs, futures, or the wealth of other financial products because they are conservative, what they are really telling you is that they are lazy and are getting paid 1% whether they lift a finger or not.
And if you financial advisor ever says something as stupid as “You earn dollars and spend dollars so it doesn’t matter.” (It being inflation, weak dollar, or anything) go get another financial advisor QUICK! This guy apparently failed ECON 101.
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