Is the stars (economic data) aligning for a solid rally? That’s what traders (investors) are hoping for. However, the GDP this morning is showing a slow down at a .6% growth – below forecast, but the ADP is showing some strength in the job numbers (prior to the government numbers on Friday) above expectations at 130,000. Mixed signals for sure – ADP showing strong job growth but the GDP showing we are heading into a recession – well the Futures whipsawed on that news as they came in one after another. The question is how the Fed spins these numbers, the ADP (which probably is a good indicator the Gov. job numbers will also beat – reported on Friday – but you know Bernanke has them already) is showing strength. Maybe the spin is that the 4th quarter was the worse and the job numbers are showing we are rallying off these bottoms. Market expects a cut and they WANT a 50bps cut. Needless to say the spring is taking on a serious load at these levels and we will most certainly see it unload with a JOLT!
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McCain and Hillary win Florida
It looks like Giuliani is done, so is Huck and the rest. A two person race for sure on the Rep. side (Mitt vs. McCain). I think McCain will take it because he pulls lots of independents and is more “likeable” by both parties. Hillary and Obama are still in it as well, what will make the difference is who Edwards decides to back. My guess it’s one of two outcomes McCain vs. Hillary or McCain vs. Obama . I think (very unfortunately) that both race and sex COULD be a hinderance for the Democrats – wish more people could look beyond it.
You probably all know where I stand and I really don’t think there is any candidate out there to will inspire this nation and has a solid economic plan to strengthen this nation. The democrats will raise taxes and probably put this country further behind the eight-ball and the republicans need to change their image SERIOUSLY both foreign and domestic. Neither side has a REAL plan. That is why we are seeing such a wide open race! Unfortunately most people probably feel “Anything is better than Bush” – which is no way to vote.
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GDP – can you say WHACK!!!
The GDP came in lower than expected by HALF. Expectations among economist (77 surveyed) was for a contracting expansion of 1.2%. At .6% the economic growth of the country has contracted to levels that many say “SHOULD” be considered a recession. Either way you look at it – it is most certainly looking negative. Most of the blame was the massive drop in credit spending as consumers are fully tapped out. The nation relies heavily on consumer spending and the majority of that spending comes in the form of credit (or deficit) spending. However those lines of credit have shrunk significantly. The first signs of the credit crunch was the housing implosion and the default / foreclosure rate, then we started seeing it in the auto-loan sector, and most recently even in the student loan sector which has had to increase their reserves for defaults by 400% year-over-year.
As I mentioned earlier the ADP job numbers (not the official job numbers) came in WAY stronger than expected – so the spin could be that the GDP is showing the bottom in the 4th quarter – add in the strong job numbers and we are coming back strong and COULD avoid recession. Of course I don’t buy that story – but market perception is all that matters. I am already hearing some of that “type” of spin this morning on Bloomberg and CNBC.
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The FED
CNBC compared Bernanke to Hamlet and I think they are pretty much spot on. His speeches in the 3rd quarter last year were clearly that the FED was focused on the economy and inflation and they would NOT cut rates to service the financial institution from because of failed loans. Needless to say (via the freedom of information act) a week after his speech in Colorado – Bernanke had meet with the CEOs of the major lending institutions and had meet several times with Treasury Sec. Paulson (ex CEO of Goldman) and bang – we got the first surprise rate cut and a 50 bps cut at the discount window. I don’t think Bernanke while making that speech had any clue how bad things were at the financial institutions – then he got a peak behind the kimono! Since then he has been serving two masters the economy and the major banks. He knows that major cuts in interest rates will keep several of these firms solvent (and within Fed guidelines) at the same time it will put serious pressure on the economy (mainly the weakening dollar – which fools spin as a good thing). So he has been “pussy footing” with 25bps rate cuts. Now I am beginning to think that those meetings with the CEOs back at the end of the 3rd quarter was probably still not clear enough as to how deep the problem runs.
The surprise rate cut of 75 bps has clearly shown that he is now jumping in with both feet and things are worst than even imagined in the 3rd or 4th quarter last year – mainly the possible failure of the bond insurers that insure almost $2 trillion in bonds – Fitch (a credit rating institution) cut over 130,000 bonds – clearly showing the sign that AAA ratings don’t mean RISK FREE.
The problem – if he continues to cut and we get to 2, 1 or even .5% then what? He can only toss his hands in the air. Goldman predicts 2.5% by the 3rd quarter. If we get another 50bps cut today we will be below the “reported” rate of inflation.
Question – are we on the similar path as Japan in the 80s? The dreaded triple down-turn! Equities, Bonds, and Currency all heads into the toilet! I seriously hope not – but with the rate cuts and the dollar falling, it is only the market at this point holding things up.
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Futures Preopen
Talk about morning volatility – futures down prior to the ADP – then with strong job numbers we get a rally – then the GDP curtails that and we start falling off again. The futures are looking down and the action is pretty volatile. Most ARB traders will probably sit on the sideline as morning action is already pretty uncertain. The spreads are expanding-contracting minute by minute and not worth a long or short leg at this point. The opening is looking to have some selling pressure – but after that – who knows.
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Support /Resistance
The “SPRING” is taking on a massive load and is ready to release with a jolt and possible whipsaw. Today will probably see some heavy volatility.
INDU 12000 / 13000 (we are at the 12,500 level – just below and did get above it yesterday intra-day – the market is poised for a big and fast move. We could easily see 13,000 or 12,000 today or close to it. Yeah – we could have a 300-500 point move – do NOT be surprise if we get something like that today.)
NDX 1700 / 1900 (we are loading here at 1800 and getting ready to move fast and hard.)
SPX 1300 / 1400 ( we are loading on the 1350 line – ready to move)
RUT 650 / 750 (Again 700 is the pivot point)
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Conclusion
This market is loading up for a move, if the GDP had not come in with such a major WHACK – I would say the ADP alone followed by a 50bps cut would send this market up fast and hard. But that GDP number is rather looming and casting a nasty shadow over everything – the cut is the first thing to come – prior to his actual words – so we will get an initial JOLT from the cut – then we will absorb his words (and if he spins the GDP in to a positive or states the economy is going to get worse) – that will be the second JOLT intra-day.
No doubt this market WANTS to rally – the question is have the stars aligned for a optimistic euphoric move? The GDP certainly is certainly lining up.
Get ready for some action today. Do NOT take a delta stand today with OUT hedging. An initial move to the upside could be followed by a major sell off or an initial downside move could be followed by a massive rally.
Get ready for the roller coaster!
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