Bailout Plan Part Deux (sorry no time for pictures again today)
Yesterday they voted down the Bailout Plan - and of course the blame game started, as much as they want this to be bi-partisan it's not going to happen - this is an election year and not just for Obama and McCain - but many members of the house are concerned about their future. Pelosi (house leader) spoke last Friday about working in a bi-partisan way to pass this very unpopular bill, but when the floor open to vote - she lead with a very partisan-blame-game speech, why she decided to provoke anyone that was already on the fence before this important vote - well let's just chalk that up to bi-partisan stupidity.
There are three groups against this plan, the socialist Democrats that want to include a home-owner bailout and more reforms that didn't get it (so they voted against it), the conservative Republicans that don't want to spend more government money on a plan which also includes tighter regulations, and those Democrats and Republicans that are voting for the will of the people (who have flooded their congressional representatives with emails, letters, and phone calls to vote this down.)
The Paulson Plan was initially a single page document, but Frank (chairman of the finance committee) help re-draft the plan with his members to create something that they could all come to terms with. Frank told the press on Friday the Plan will PASS - he was sure of it. But Frank has a very bad habit of not listening to anyone - remember he was told that the Freddie/Fannie Plan to bailout the mortgages would lead to their demise - but he didn't listen.
When the vote FAILED - the blame game started. Frank and Pelosi held a press conference and started blaming the Republicans. But let's look at the vote, only 60% of the Democrats voted for it, even 12 members of Franks OWN Finance committee voted AGAINST it. It wasn't just Republicans that didn't vote for it, it was also Democrats. It is clearly an unpopular bill - not only among the members of Congress - but also the citizens of this country. I would argue that even McCain would not vote for it if he was not running for President, I am sure no matter what you are NOT going to get Ron Paul to vote for such a bill. But Pelosi WANTS a bi-partisan vote, WHY? Because she doesn't want HER party to take the blame if they pass it on a party line vote and it fails. It's about not taking accountability or responsibility - if she can get the Republicans to also get on board and pass it she can clearly pass the buck if (when) it DOES FAIL. For if they really believed it - they could pass it - they control the house! Even though Bush supports it (ironic he is on the side of Frank and Pelosi) the Republicans are voting against the President - he is a lame duck and they sure do NOT want his endorsement when they run for re-election. They are voting either because the plan sucks or their constituency doesn't want it. You want to know how your representative voted? Visit: http://www.opencongress.org/roll_call/all (of course it hasn't been updated YET - because I am sure Congress doesn't want to take any more heat from their constituency)
But the Plan WILL fail the expectations of what they believe it to solve. It will work to buy down $700 billion of toxic paper, but that will not solve the economic crisis we are in - other than maybe give a little bump to the markets and keep a few companies from failing. The housing market is not going to turn around, jobs will not be created, inflation will not be put at bay, it does not guarantee that credit will open - it simply is to give relief to a handful of selected companies that are holding tons of toxic paper.
The plan is really no different than the SIV Superfund Plan that Paulson purposed, or the Freddie/Fannie Plan where they would bailout the mortgage companies (that too failed - we bailed them out). The Discount Window that has lent 100s of billions to Banks (including Lehman, Freddie, Fannie, WaMu, and Wachovia - wonder if it will get repaid on those loans?) The Fed and Treasury have already spent over $300 billion on AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie, and Fannie - that doesn't even include the Wachovia guarantees. So what makes them THINK that $700 billion will be enough? It certainly will not be and it will NOT stop the deleveraging.
Of course I am against the plan in any form. I just don't have faith that the government can manage risk, understand credit or debt, or even balance their own budget or pay down debt. It has proven that it cannot - just look at Freddie and Fannie. The market sold off yesterday pretty hard, and guess what there is NO SHORTING in over 850 stocks. The government is doing everything to keep the market from falling - but those are just prolonging the reality - deleveraging.
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Credit Markets Tighten Further!
The Bailout Political Joke fails and of course LIBOR took off like a rocket over 433 basis points to 6.88%, Euribor (one month loans) followed close behind and ripped to over 5% - there is NO MONEY any where and when you do find it expect to spend TOP DOLLAR for it. Pimco's Bill Gross reported yesterday that short-term credit totally seized yesterday - it just halted. That will lead to more failures and now $700 billion might not even be enough to get us through the next month. The seize of the credit markets pushed more banks to the breaking point - Wachovia and several other banks either failed or are on the cliff of failing. LIBOR is used to price over $350 TRILLION worth of debt World Wide from home loans to car loans. You can quickly see that $700 billion will not even grease the wheels.
The TED spread (the difference between what the banks and the US treasury pay to borrow money) broke through 3.50 for the first time yesterday - it is currently 3.38. The spread was on 1% a month ago. Clearly showing the only door for money is the Discount Window which is beyond tapped out. Bernanke even lowered the collateral to post to include even failed junk paper. The Discount Window will never fully be paid back - you can write a big chunk of that money off.
We are probably going to see this continue even WITH the $700 billion - we are talking about a worldwide credit crunch now. This seriously puts other countries into some introspective realizations - and that is a decoupling of the dollar as a reserve.
We thought the Sub-Prime was a problem if paled in comparison to the Credit Problem. I would argue the Credit Problem is going to make the Dollar problem pale in comparison.
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Future Pre-Market
The futures are rallying (again) thinking the next vote will pass and we should get a power bump in the market. The spreads are fairly decent going into the opening. We should see a good pop at the opening.
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Support / Resistance
We have moved to new areas - it is now uncertainty that will drive this up or down.
INDU ???? / 10,500 (We broke down through 10,500 we could get back above it today if there is optimism that the Plan will pass again. But we are now in critical areas - any bounce in my book is a dead-cat.)
NDX ???? / 1600 (We are now in a area to BUILD a support level - there really is not a support level we need to create one.)
SPX 1100 ??? / 1150 (Again 1100 is not really anything more than a psychological support.)
RUT 660 / 680 (The only index to hold previous lows is the RUT - if it can NOT get above 660 then we could see this at 640 - then below that is unknown like the rest of the market.)
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Conclusion
Any analyst or talking head that says we are NOT heading into a recession is not just a fool - they have been drinking too much of the Kook-aid. We are facing challenging times and we are looking for SHORT-TERM solutions and failing to look at long-term repercussions. It is better to have the market crash, companies to fail, and find a BOTTOM fast and quickly - no matter how PAINFUL it could be - because the sooner we do that the faster we will unfreeze the credit markets and the faster we are on the road to recovery.
In 1987 the market crashed and then without a massive government bailout we rallied back and the market was stronger for it, but back in the 1927 crash it was years before and after of MORE government man-handling intervention that some blame the Depression on. Bernanke's claim to fame is being a great study of the Depression, he doesn't want to fall victim for following in those footsteps. He also doesn't want to be blamed for a market crash. But casting his feelings aside - getting a solid correction in the market and washing out the losers - the strong will survive and we WILL find a bottom.
Right now the government is shifting losses to their books - relying on foreign money to pick up the tab - and squarely placing the risk on the Tax Payers of tomorrow. It has changed the rules, banned short selling, and continues to try to keep this market from failing - when the forces of capitalism says some NEED to fail for REAL price discovery. Buffet calls it mark-to-myth and the government is contributing to this mess - they are certainly not solving it.
The government, Frank, Pelosi, Dodd, Bernanke, Paulson, and all those that are for more government intervention are making the problem bigger to include not only government and tax payer debt - but are creating a bigger problem - they are creating a HUGE CRACK in the Dollar. If the Dollar fails (and it will if we continue to print money) then the system WILL fail -and there is NOTHING they can do to save that.
These are VERY scary times - tell your Republican or Democrat representatives NOT to support this very stupid, quickly put together, very unguided, and not forward thinking plan!
BTW - Oct 2nd the Shorts are coming back to town - unless that too is pushed out.
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