Another slid yesterday - while it wasn't a big move to the downside it is that slow slide down that erodes the gains and makes the hole ever deeper.
I received some emails yesterday about the Transparency Story as to what exactly I was referring too. I think better than trying to explain it again - Bloomberg had a story on it yesterday - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=worldwide
Our nation is currently is a dangerous void period between presidents, Obama is still building staff and really doesn't have any power to move on his positions, while the current lame duck president seems to be waiting out the days. It's currently Congress that is running the show for the next 90 days and have pretty much run Amok - which is easy to see just be reading the above news story.
That leaves the market, credit markets, and entire economic system in a very fragile state. As I mentioned in January - this will be the "Year of Volatility" - expect more - not less.
Lastly - I also received some comments about the FDR / Obama item. For the record several news agencies and talking heads have been comparing the current economic times to the Great Depression and FDR's policies with Obama’s. I agree there are similarities - my concern is that during the Depression our nation was an isolationist, not by choice - but rather based on current technology of the era. We had our own natural resources and manufacturing - and while trade existed we were a net exporter, not importer (even the lend-lease program helped shift this nation towards a net exportation. Therefore my concern is rather simple, FDR could raise taxes and nationalize industry - people and companies could not easily move overseas (for all kinds of logistic reasons). Today companies easily move to areas that are more fertile for business and people move overseas all the time. What would happen if taxes went to Depression levels (70-80%) or even levels of the 1950's - 1960's (40-50%)? Do you think businesses will leave? Do you think people will want to create new businesses (small and large) under those levels in this nation? At the end of the day - someone had to pay for the New Deal (that was all citizens and very high taxes). And at the end of THESE TIMES someone will have to pay for the Bailout, the Discount Window defaults, the possible new New Deal programs that are coming. That will be higher taxes. Does higher taxes create a better landscape for current or future business in a global market?
If we are to compare FDR and Obama or today with the Great Depression - don't forget the Depression lasted 7 years and under FDR many new programs and the largest expansion of government happened during these times. So - I don't think things are going to just turn around in 2009 - if any of the comparisons are to be even slightly accurate.
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Circuit Sh#ty
Ok - sorry about the language - but this company was a failure from day one. Have you ever walked into a store and said something doesn't seem right? That was true for me - I never liked Circuit City since the first day I went in there. It was like the reject electronic section of Sears. They never could figure it out - were they a higher in electronic store, discount store, general appliance store, what? By trying to offer a little of everything they never go on the ball with anything. Since they could not differentiate them sells from their competitors or offer better deals than Sears, Wall-Mart, Home Depot, etc. Regardless - it was only time before they flushed.
Good news - even though it will be a tight holiday season - at least the competitors will get a little more traction since the City will not be an option.
Oh yeah - don't get anyone any City gift cards and if you have them - sorry!
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American Express a Bank?
This is irony - the very industry that is falling apart is also the industry you want to be in if you are having credit problems. Why, because it gives you access to that printing press of cheap money also known as the Discount Window. American Express is having problems as the next line of credit (credit and charge cards) are now getting fully tapped by the consumers of this nation. Default rates are rocketing across the board creating another leak in the banking ships. Citigroup has lately offering .60 cents on the dollar to settle up default or late balances.
It's sick that companies are getting in line or changing their corporate mandate to get access to government money, American Express is just the latest. That is not a good sign that the credit card market is doing any better. People need to spend and all they have left (because they don't have savings) is credit cards.
What next, GM becomes a bank? - well I am sure that GMAC's eyebrows are raised after the American Express story this morning.
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GM, UAW, buy American!
Well I think the big test of nationalization will be happening sooner than we think. How does the government deal with the bailout of the Big Three? That has been all the in Washington. Pelosi meet with the CEO of the "Big Three" along with UAW leaders - last week. Coming out of that meeting - Democrats have been pushing Paulson to include the Big Three among recipients of the $700 billion bailout. However, they fail to realize they gave that "call" to Paulson and right now they are having problems getting any transparency from either Paulson or Bernanke. Even President-elect Obama has been pushing the "bailout" of the automakers.
But with a bailout of this size - there are many issues that need to be taken into consideration. UAW, Management, Shareholders, Bond Holders, affiliate companies. Is nationalization in the cards? Certainly. The question is how far does it go and how much MORE tax payer money will be put at risk to keep these companies going forward.
No doubt the legacy program is sinking these companies fast. GM is burning 1 billion a month - it's serious crunch time and we might not be able to wait until Obama takes office. Several of the auto-makers could be facing bankruptcy - just around the corner.
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Futures Pre-market
The futures again are getting hit in the pre-market. The revised AIG terms, Circuit City, and the Big Three going down are not a signal that the worst is behind us. The realization that it could be a long haul going forward is upon us. Futures are down in the pre-market. The spread is in there - so expect Arb traders to buy the futures and short the basket sending downside pressure into the opening - if the spread remains.
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Support / Resistance
We had slippage yesterday - but didn't fall out of bed.
INDU 8500 / 9000 (we will break out of this range - when and what the catalyst is - well that is unknown.)
NDX 1200 / 1300 (Again - range will carry the day - maybe)
SPX 900 / 950 (Range)
RUT 450 (500) 550 (500 is the pivot point)
Something will be the catalyst to break out of the range - so far we are drifting to the bottom.
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Conclusion
Well another day with recession looming. The Congress is itching to release another massive bailout package. Bailouts for the Auto Industry. It seems like there is a never ending supply of dollars, but is there? We are printing money fast and while many very smart economist and analyst are saying we are not seeing inflation now (and I agree) the problem is tomorrow. What happens in a few months or a year or two - when we have to pay down this debt? The revenue from taxes, piled on MORE government spending and programs, will never make up the short-fall. Can a country go bankrupt, sure - just look at Iceland - the other alternative is devaluation. What may seem like the quick and right answer today - band aiding GM, AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie, Fannie, etc - means that we put more stress on the entire economic system in the future and stress on a fiat (faith backed) currency.
The economist had an article last week about why the dollar has remained strong in light of the situation (as it obviously doesn't make sense) - the concerning issue about the article is while it has value reasons WHY - they are ALL based on current perception that the government is doing the right thing today. Unfortunately the article failed to find any fundamental reasons as to why the currency should remain strong. It's perception and hope - and Obama's job is going to be selling the "Hope" to foreign nations to convince them we got a handle on it and the dollar is stable, or at least seems so.
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