Most of yesterday's trading was mixed - the action was confusing as we flirt with the support levels and then had a good rally into the close. Many listen into the Hill question Paulson (I like how they question him as if they didn't realize they just gave him $700 billion to spend on how he sees fit - all rather silly - didn't these same fools just vote to give him that money?)
Also there is the big push for giving more money to the Big Three as many people are jaw-slacked that our NEW leadership wants to spend MORE money bailing out COMPANIES. Isn't the Democrats the party of the people? I guess money and votes CAN buy you a bailout. Anyway - it's going to be probably the last fight between parties until the new administration and congress meets - then it will be easier to push through a agenda. The big question is do they drop Paulson for a Sec. Treasury that will spend the money as they wish him too? From the hearings - it sounded like they are creating a list (of more naughty than nice). I hope that some of you at least saw Ron Paul ASK questions that no one wants to ask or answer!
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FED cash injections push the envelope
As I have pointed out before there are two rates the FED sets, the TARGET (which everyone focuses on) this is the one the FED sets as a TARGET for banks to lend to each other, the second rate is the DISCOUNT (which most people don't focus on) this is the rate the FED sets to borrow from the FED directly. Traditionally - it is the Target rate that sees all the action - as those who borrow from the FED (via the DISCOUNT) are few and far between. However, that has inverted as there is no money to borrow from each other (via the Target) they have all gone to the FED to borrow directly.
However - we are starting to see another problem surface. The FED has injected SO much money into the system - (via different avenues - including the Discount window) that the FED has FAILED to meet its target rate. Some analyst have said the Target rate, because of all the FED injections, has become irrelevant. On Bloomberg this morning on interest rate trader stated "The Federal Reserve has injected 100s of billions into the system, which is just backed up in the reserve pool and not moving. The Target rate has decoupled and the Fed has lost control of their monetary policy." I sounds to me like a plumber that has poured gallons of liquid Drano into a toilet and now the Septic Tank is full of Drano.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abYTR9BqGlBo&refer=home
Here are the current overnight lending rates vs. target (I think you'll be surprise how far it has come off).
DATE_____RATE_____TARGET
11/18_____.38_______1.00
11/17_____.37_______1.00
11/14_____.34_______1.00
So what is happening? People are so focused on the TARP that they forget that the FED has dumped 100s of billions into the system and the system is still clogged. Yesterday I mentioned that several people I know had their credit lines get zapped, credit card limits come down, and access to any form of credit is shrinking fast. However, looking at the reserve pool it has ballooned from $2 billion to over $300 billion - so why is the money not flowing. Add to that the government still on the war path to bailing out companies and banks - more money is going into the system - but nothing is coming out.
It would seem that we are in a deflation situation - which I would agree it SEEMS like that - but in my VERY humble opinion - I think we are just looking at the surface, that inflation is what is really inflating the deflation bubble that when it pops the inversion will be a shocker.
As you may know, I am a big Jim Rogers fan - he always seems to make things sound simple - here is a recent video of him - I think he has got a better handle on this than most (mainly because he is OUTSIDE looking in) - let me know what you think:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opMw9X0TlfM
So many people are caught up in the politics and the minutia - that they don't see the big picture. Jim Rogers (IMHO) sees the 1,000 foot view!__________________________________________________
Time to be a Pirate?
It seems the only ones that are profiting in this crap market and economy are those pirates that I mentioned yesterday. Three more ships have fallen victim - looks like 3 more ships were taken.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awRBL.YU0d4M&refer=home ___________________________________________________
Futures Premarket
The futures are getting hit a little, but are not that far below fair value. The spreads are fairly narrow – if the Arb traders step in to buy the futures to short the cash – expect a flat opening.
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Support / Resistance
Bounce off the supports – it looks like we got a little relief – we are really flirting down here for sure.
INDU 8000-8250 / 8750-9000 (That 8250 level at the open/close seems to be the “NUT” support – with some intraday flirting down to the 8k level. If we hold we could get a good euphoric rip to the upside. Don’t be surprised if that happens.)
NDX 1100-1150 / 1200-1250 (This index is a little more volatile in the support area – it’s a questionable hold – can we pop or do we break?)
SPX 800-850 / 900 (The 850 level is like the 8250 level in the INDU. A serious open/close area with some visits intraday below that area. Traditionally this would be a place to get long – but in these times do it with caution and gamma!)
RUT 400-450 / 500 (The 450 level is also a key open/close area – we need to close above it to show strength. However the opening is looking a little weak – it’s about the close.)
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Conclusion
The Big Three fight is getting interesting – you fall in either one of two camps – bail them out or let them file for Ch. 11. Now remember, CH. 11 is reorganization – if GM files for bankruptcy it’s not like it collapses – it will be business as usual for customers. They’ll still build, service, and sell cars. They’ll still have jobs. There will still be dealerships. They will still be in business. However, if you listen to Pelosi – she makes it sound as if we don’t bailout GM and the other two that all that will be left in Detroit will be a big mud hole. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Sure the shareholders and debt holders will get shafted – but consumers and employees will not see any big difference.
Doesn’t Pelosi know what Ch. 11 is? All you have to do is look at Macy’s, K-Mart, Delta Airlines, or the many other big companies that filed Ch. 11. Macy’s still sold clothes, K-mart still had their blue-light specials, and no one’s flights were canceled on Delta. It’s called REORGANIZATION for a reason and if she still wants to help – the government has helped companies that have filed Ch. 11. The problem is that IF we bailout GM, as she purposes, we don’t SOLVE The current problem – it’s the business plan! The other issue is that Nancy is listening to the CEO’s of these troubled companies – who are trying to save their collective asses – because they KNOW in CH. 11 they will kick a swift kick in the pants to the street.
Let’s hope they don’t bailout GM on the back of tax payers. As an representative from Toyota USA said – If they bailout GM, we (competitive automakers) will be bailing them out via higher corporate tax rates. He’s right – why would Toyota want to bailout their competitor with a failed business plan?
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