My wife tells me that sometimes my heavy handed with (sarcasm) gets the best of me and for anyone that reads this (and doesn’t know me) – hopefully it is conveyed properly (trust me – it’s better in person). Maybe it was my time in the Navy or being a Floor Trader – or the combination of booth, in which both instances defense mechanism comes with the territory and since I am in the 175 lb range (prior to sucking down that Turkey tomorrow) – having a sharp tongue was my form of aggressive attack and a defensive mechanism. I was also taught on the trading floor – hurt them where it counts – their WALLET! That being sad – I do apologize to any if I come off the wrong way or offend anyone. It’s Thanksgiving and we should be thankful for our friends, family, and health.
I also want to apologize to my friend (a wise and very smart person) by using his quote yesterday, but not complete– I was trying to make point from the responses I got (from other people) and his first sentence summed up the responses I received the best. Here it is in its entirety: “As a tax payer, I don't care if the government is using our money to bail out these companies as long as I get good risk-adjusted returns on the bailout. These may be good investment opportunities. My disappointment is that Hank, with his GS credentials, is doing a terrible job making these deals. I want better deal makers at the helm.” My apologies, D.
My contention was simply that the government (Congress, FED, and Treasury) – are doing the bailout and they have to “Sell it” – they are NOT doing it because these are excellent investment opportunities – that is just the sales pitch to get Congress members on board to vote for it and convince the American people it is NOT as bad as it sounds and that their tax dollars are not at risk. But enough of me kicking that dead horse – you know my shtick by now.
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Mortgages being to come down
I thought we might of seen a little pop in the market from U.S. mortgage rates coming off – FINALLY. The FED cut rates from 6% to 1% and we didn’t see FIX mortgage rates move down, in fact they went up. Anyone that tells you that the Target Rate the Fed sets and Mortgage Rates are connected – is a fool. I tracked it back through Greenspan’s era and there is barely (if any) correlation at all. It seems to be used more of an excuse by lenders than anything else.
While many blame Greenspan for the housing bubble, and while I am not trying to defend his monetary policy, it is obvious that the people that blame Greenspan either didn’t do the math or failed math 101 in school. Fix mortgage rates remained between 6-8% when Greenspan took the Target rate after the Dot.com crash down to 1% and then back up. The housing bubble is simply the expansion of lower lending standards and the increase in creative financing (interest only, no-money down, option arms, etc.) – it really didn’t have anything to do with the interest rates – because mortgage rates (on a 30 year fix) remained fairly fixed. All you have to do is look in the last year as Bernanke took interest rates down (just like Greenspan) to 1% and mortgage rates stayed at 6% and had also increased during the 7 cuts in rates. So hate, blame, or dislike Greenspan for his monetary policy – don’t blame him for the housing bubble. It doesn’t set the banking and lending policy (nor does he control Freddie or Fannie) – Blame Congress (the GOP and the Democrats) for failing to regulate the banking system, Freddie, Fannie, etc. And also encouraging lowered lending standards. (sorry about the rant – but I get called on this one all the time).
Back on track – the TARP was initially going to purchased failed debt that SHOULD relieve banks to continue lending and HOPEFULLY bring down borrow rates. However, Hank changed his mind and invested directly into the bank. The problem with that logic is that banks are holding failed paper and by receiving money they are encouraged to hold that paper – on the hope that in could increase in value. Think about it like this – if you had a losing stock trade and someone offered to buy it out from you OR they offered to give you more money (margin) to hold on to it – which would you do? Of course the latter, because you HOPE to make some or all of your money back.
Anyway – the central bank pledged to purchase up to $500 billion in debt as well as up to $100 billion in direct debt of Freddie and Fannie. This DIRECT purchasing of failed paper is getting lending firms a little room to start lending and it would seem on the face of it that credit is starting to flow again. All good news – except (not to be the bearer of bad tidings) there are two issues. 1st will banks learn their lesson and NOT lend on these creative financing terms, but rather ONLY lend to those that are credit worthy? 2nd what does this additional debt due to the economy, taxes, budget deficit, treasuries, and most importantly stress on the USD?
It’s all fine when you have your hand on the printing press and can print your way out of problems (on the surface it SEEMS to work) and credit starts to flow – but I keep asking myself what happens to treasuries and the USD? I smell smoke and where there is smoke there is fire. Short-term this should give a boost to the economy.
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Dividend Reinvestment?
It looks like Vita Nelson of the Money Store and her plan for dividend reinvestment is going to see some very lean times. Stocks are cutting or eliminating dividends in the fastest rate in 50 years as companies need to reserve cash. Bloomberg story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKVN9wFDKavU&refer=home
However – there are some interesting products out there that DO pay a dividend (in some cases monthly). A financial advisor friend of mine pointed out some ETF holding companies – some are a mix of foreign treasury holdings, while others are corporate debt. Now I know in this day and age you might have trepidation investing in corporate bonds or foreign treasuries – but here is the beauty of ETFs – first they are liquid (not like buying the bond directly or the treasury) – that means any time you can sell them out. Second many of these pay monthly dividend – so calculating monthly and annual yield rates are fairly easy. Third – some (only a few) have options – which allows for 1:1 contract hedging and increased yield performance.
Anyway – take a look. I don’t market, endorse, or solicit any business (I am not allowed to) – but if you are interested – about some symbols and want to have a frank conversation about them – send me and email. I prefer the open forum of discussion of ideas and I am happy to include my friend – who is doing the heavy lifting (research).
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Futures Pre-market
They are giving up some of the gains and looking lower. Spreads are in – but we might not see the ARB traders stepping up to the plate because of it being a light volume day and having to short into the opening on a day like today is not fun and more risky. Expect some downside pressure at the opening.
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Support / Resistance
We had a good run up on euphoric hope but the government numbers and MORE money being poured into the system is bring reality back quickly. We are in some pivot point ranges as well – were moves are expected and gamma is your friend.
INDU 8000 (8500) 9000 (We could get a move either way from here - but it IS looking down. If the mortgage news (being good) can make any impact we may see a little bounce.)
NDX 1000-1100 (1150) 1200 (Again – seeing some volatile action in the pre-market on futures – up, down, down, up, unchanged…who knows – expect action.)
SPX 800 (850) 900 (Again pivot point)
RUT 400 (450) 500 (Again pivot point)
It’s a light trading day going into a long weekend – expect some hyper moves because of the light volume. Additionally it is questionable if anyone wants to hang onto positions for the next 4 days (Friday being a ½ day).
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Conclusion
It’s Thanksgiving time – enjoy this with friends and family. Forget about the stock market and the economy for the day and be thankful. Remember – it’s not what you HAVE or OWN (that is just materialistic junk) – it’s WHO you are , your friends, and family that really count. To quote the title of a famous (and very funny) play (which I happened to perform in my previous Thespian days) “You Can’t Take It With You!”
So you’ll have to deal without my sarcasm for a day – but maybe it’s better that you did.
Enjoy the Turkey and stay safe.
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