Sell off back to those pivot levels is more proof that regardless of what our government officials do the reality is that leverage (and the unwinding of that leverage) is what is really driving the economy. Additionally we have seen huge volatility in the currency markets – enough so that Japan (being the KING of the CARRY TRADE) – is very VERY concern – as the dollar continues its move. The concern about volatility in the currency markets (something we should all pay attention too) is that it brings volatility to the entire economic system – since we now live in the global market – trade, exporters, importers, commodities, debt, interest, etc. is all greatly affected by currencies and thus the more volatility in currencies the more difficult it is to stabilize our own economy.
I have received more FDR (NEW DEAL) emails – from supporters of such an endeavor. Regardless if you support New Deal programs or not – there is a piece of the puzzle that has SERIOUSLY changed since FDR’s time. Again – this is not to debate politics or TRY to convince you that NEW DEAL programs are good or bad (by now you know my stance). The big piece of the puzzle that has changed from FDR to Obama – is the economic strings (or relationships). During the FDR administration we were a net EXPORT nation – additionally we had our OWN food and natural resources we relied on. You could say (compared to today) we were a isolated island that was to some extent self reliant. This made it easier for FDR – because he didn’t have to rely on the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) as it’s back up source of energy, or food from overseas, or the commodities in which to build all the New Deal projects – it was a serious advantage to FDR because it was an easier math problem for him to solve because that variable was quantifiable and very measureable. Additionally the currencies were not wrapped up in leveraged in LIBOR and foreign markets. Today Obama faces (granted) similar situations that FDR faced – however we are a net IMPORTER – a consumer of goods, both durable and raw material. Additionally our currency is no longer backed by any intrinsic value but rather a surrogate for barter, in which faith is paramount. That leaves the question – whether you support FDR New Deal policies or not – the outcome may be drastically different and the equation is definitely more vague as to the outcome. I sure don’t envy Obama (or any politician) in today’s economy. Just food for thought.
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GM and Chrysler (it’s midnight)!
The CEO’s as if eager children await Bush (Santa) to float them their money. Bush plans to announce his plan at 9am today in Washington. He has hinted that he will be giving them the money they have asked for – if we are to interpret his statements correctly. The question are what and if there are strings attached. The problem with our government (all parties) is that they make an agreement (legislation) – they all vote for it and then – they don’t honor it. What is the point - it’s as if they are just shooting from the hip and hope to hit something. The TARP has turned into everything it wasn’t supposed to be and now we have set a standard that money is money and we can and will bailout who we decide on any given day to bailout. Certainly the situation is not getting better, but worse. If GM and Chrysler (note a private company) get money – who’s next , Wall-mart? The same argument could be made for Wall-mart – they are the world’s largest employee – if they fall on tough times do we give them money too. What about farmers, oh wait they already get subsidies.
Expect to see a pop in these companies as the euphoric lemmings run to companies with failed business models that have become semi-nationalized. If the current business model is not working, what makes the Federal Government think they can run it any better? They have done a hell of a job with Freddie and Fannie – now the printing press is smoking red hot to pump cash into the system. They need to turbo charged those printing presses – because if this is the road we are taking they need to print trillions more.
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LIBOR coming down – good news ???
The LIBOR has needed to close the gap to reflect banks borrowing from each other, rather than getting in the long line at the Discount Window. LIBOR came in at 1.5% today – still higher – but at least it is coming in. Additionally that was helped by pumping MORE emergency cash into the system. Of course Japan is going nuts and the Carry Trade (technically the entire business model for the banking system as during their lost decade) is unraveling and is spiraling out of control. Bank of Japan cut it’s benchmark to .1% and introduced the New and Improved way of injecting MORE money into the system – it reminds me of Sherman’s march and laying waste to anything and everything. It will take another decade to get out from under that hole – at least.
So while LIBOR is coming down – would seem good news – the clarity of the model remains completely foggy – is it coming in because banks are actually lending to each other or is it because of the massive injections of capital. I would say the later has more of an impact. Also – the LIBOR number is one thing – but based on what amount of capital. It’s like saying mortgage rates have come down, but if no one can get a mortgage (or if they have to put up 50% equity) – what’s the point? I think the big risk is the spread exploding again and I can see that happening in the 1st quarter of 09 – if that happens we could see more pressure on the dollar and thus more printing and injection of the dollar and the ugly cycle continues.
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Futures Pre-market
The futures are seeing some pressure after yesterday’s sell off, it’s before 9am so we don’t know what impact yet Bush’s speech of the injection of capital to GM is going to take, but that could send some volatility into the futures prior to the opening. Right now we are looking at a lower opening but that could change quickly.
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Support / Resistance
Back to the Pivot Points – now where?
INDU 8000 (8500) 9000 (We headed off the resistance and back down – being expiration we could also get a jolt of volatility today as hedging in thinner markets can move deltas quickly.)
NDX 1100 / 1200-1250 (We are still in that upper band of resistance between the 1200-1250, we stopped right at 1200 yesterday – do we stay in the upper band?)
SPX 800 (850) 900 (Well 900, even though we were slightly above yesterday was nothing more than a over-extended resistance and we retraced back down.)
RUT 400 (450) 500 (Again we never really got up to 500 and lagged behind the others – now a pull off.)
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Conclusion
I wanted to tell a story the other day, which I think will be a more common sight. I currently live in Sarasota – a nice and well kept city on the Gulf of Mexico. I was driving to work the other day and on the corner was a man in a very nice suite, well groomed, looked to be in his 40s holding a sign – EXCELLENT HARD WORKING EMPLOYEE LOOKING FOR WORK! – I was shocked, I had lived in San Francisco for over 15 years and did see Vets and others holding signs written on card-board, but this sign looked like it was made at Kinko’s and he was very well groomed. As I sat at the light I looked at him – I saw not embarrassment, but rather pride. He got up in the morning, probably has been on many interviews (I thought) and now he is standing on the corner. I wrote down his number – and I thought – is he the first of many, is this going to be a sight we will be accustomed too? Remember – this is a very nice town – with the one local homeless guy that everyone knows his name – it’s not New York, Chicago, or San Francisco. No doubt – the sight is burned into my head and I wonder if it is only an anomaly or the first of many? The story is important because I learned something when on the trading floor. Several years ago, I was working for a market making firm and our head trader asked me to leave the floor and walk down to look at a couple of particular retail stores during the holiday season (downtown San Francisco) – I was to get as much information on sales and traffic as possible and report back. I went back and told him what I found, the data I had collected. He was the market marker in those issues – he knew the same store sales were coming out and he wanted to gauge how holiday sales were going. He looked at me and said by observing the man on the street you can learn more about the economy than from any economic data. Who was I to argue – he was a very successful market maker that ran his own firm. He was also fairly right about contraction and expansion of volatility in his stock based on the data I provided him. So – getting back to the story – is the economy that bad – I’d say look around, go to Wall-mart, Macy’s, the Mall, and observe. You’ll probably get a better idea than trying to make heads or tails out of any government data.
Today is expiration – so expect to see some action, watch pin risk, after market trading, and run post ex-deltas. You don’t want to come in long or short hard deltas on Monday and caught with your pants down.
Side story – I read that a Saudi had bought a lot of Gold futures and he expects to take PHYSICAL delivery – I am trying to follow-up on the story – it would be interesting if he takes physical delivery or not. I have been in this business almost 20 years and I have yet to meet any trader that has PHYSICALLY taking delivery of Silver or Gold. I guess I never really thought about it before.
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