We did see some volatility intra-day yesterday, the market pulled off – but at the close moved back up. It was interesting to note that the RUT stayed off and closed in on that pivot point of the 450 line, while the other narrower based indices rallied into the close. I would concluded that the broader market didn’t get the strong drive at the close that some individual stocks did, that may have been over weighted in the narrower based indices.
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Retail Sales
As expected the retail sales numbers from the holiday shopping are down. As I had reported – my limited local observation was that the shops had placed fairly steep discounts (compared to previous years) to hopefully bring in buyers. I even did the “mall walk” the last Sunday before X-mass and it did seem rather slow. Granted – Sarasota makes for a very small statistical sample – but combine that with what has been reported on CNBC and Bloomberg – it wasn’t very hard to make a general observation – sales are going to fall across the board.
International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported today that sales at stores (opened at least one year) fell 1.8% in the seven days through Dec. 27th. They had projected a 1% fall – thus it came in lower than expected. The reports says that consumers spent 20% less on women’s clothing, electronics and jewelry in Nov and Dec – which pressured the larger chains to mark down items heading into X-mass and even more (up to 70%) post X-mass sales. Expectations are for even lower 4th quarter profits.
Additionally, Bloomberg is reporting pressure between the retailers and vendors. Liz Claiborne and others are putting pressure on Macy’s, Saks, and others for offering such steep discounts and are asking the retailers for concessions. This could create fall-out in the 4th quarter not just from the retailers – but trickling down to the vendors themselves.
Bloomberg story: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOtsFfDOlY6k&refer=home
It’s not time to seek value in retailers or vendors!
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GAZA heats up
While GAZA is not in an oil rich area – it is surrounded by oil rich countries that are sympathetic to the Palestinians plight. This preview is not even going to attempt a discourse in the political arena of who’s right or wrong (I certainly am not that well informed) – however what I can tell you is that this has been a traditional hot bed of conflict and both oil exports as well as other industries in the region have seen fallout from the conflict.
What does this mean for market conditions? Well we saw oil make a solid two day run up to $40 – it did pull off again in the early session it’s back down to the $39 level. News is coming out that the defense minister of Israel that a ground campaign maybe in order. There is a big difference between flying air sorties and making a ground commitment. Once tanks roll – the conflict is not only escalated but it also unfortunately it is prolonged.
Expect to see more volatility enter into the energy sector (oil) – we could start to see a run of oil futures (further out) – as the energy consumption industries continue to buy in the cheaper spot market, but hedge themselves in farther out oil contracts in case things do fall out. Additionally – Middle East policy is up in the air right now as we await President Obama to take the stage and bring forth his agenda. Expect volatility.
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Futures Pre-market
The futures are up in the pre-market – enough to create a slight arb. Expect a small pop in the cash basket at the opening.
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Support / Resistance
We continue to be stuck at the pivot points – awaiting something to drive us higher or lower. Expect nothing and everything!
INDU 8000 (8500) 9000
NDX 1100 / 1200-1250
SPX 800 (850) 900
RUT 400 (450) 500
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Conclusion
We seem to sit in a holding pattern, holiday sales are looking worse than expected (even though all the data has not come out yet) – there also seems to be some trickle down to the vendor level (as inventory at the retail side remains high – additional new inventory demand will fall off, at least through the 1st quarter). The same is happening across the board in the auto industry.
GMAC got their wish, became a bank, and yeah – got $6 billion. Not only did GMAC become a bank, but also GM is on the bailout train. It makes me want to puke – our government on this bailout train not letting ANYONE fail, what does that mean for our future, our children’s future? What about the nation debt, deficit spending – which I think as this continues the fall out to the dollar is just building up. That is the next bubble.
What makes me even more ill, is that smarter people than me don’t see any problem with this. As per a statement from Morgan Stanley – “…we believe that US fiscal sustainability has not been significantly compromised by the recent operations…” - they must know something I don’t – I just can’t swallow that idea.
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