It seems that we look towards the weekend as a break to get our head wrapped around what is going on in this economic storm – what should we do? What have we done? Where are were going? It’s December and that means the never ending train of friends and family – many of whom I haven’t seen in a long time.
This last weekend was a very good friend who was once a room-mate back in San Francisco. She now lives in Colorado and works for a medical company – it was interesting to hear her views from the perception of what is going on in a different field and different part of the country. News from Colorado was bleak as well – sure they are getting hit with housing prices, not as bad as Florida or California, lay-offs are bad as well, but not as bad as Michigan. It would seem that the country as a whole is beginning to accept the grim realities of a the recession, slowdown wave – all to different degrees.
In her field (medical equipment) she stated that hospitals are getting the pinch and the conference she is attending in Orlando is really focusing on how they can penetrate different markets and different sales methods. On Tuesday she is walking the floor with her CEO to take assessment of their market, sales, marketing, cost, and revenue. She also mentioned a very interesting sales meeting she had recently – the “negotiator” that was giving the meeting mentioned that they had been the negotiator back in the late 70s for a company that was about to spend 10x their advertising budget on the 1980s Olympics. They were very excited about the prospects of the Olympics and the high-visibility of that marketing venue world-wide. However – the question was, what is the risk? It was summed up very clearly – the Olympics was like a very expensive party and the biggest concern about a party is “will the people come?”. The “negotiator” stated that was the biggest risk in the marketing campaign of the Olympics and had put in the contract with NBC that they would be fully reimbursed if (for any reason) the US doesn’t show or win a single medal. At the time NBC thought it silly – but agreed. It was considered “Catastrophe Risk” for spending that kind of money. Needless to say – the unexpected did happen – we (the U.S.) were a no show to the Olympics and the ONLY firm to get their money back from NBC was that firm that negotiated the clause. The point is clear, said the negotiator, we may not KNOW what happens but planning for the unexpected (black swan) may seem silly today – but tomorrow it just might be that simple silly clause or plan that keeps you safe or the company in business. Their medical company is looking at that problem now and hedging it. What is that medical companies concern (Olympics) today, I asked? She said – Hospitals and Medical equipment users NOT PAYING – the reasons could be from out of money, hyper inflation (dollar not having the buying power), etc. But to sum it up – it was NOT PAYING. They are currently (and have been) focusing their efforts in case of such an event. Sure it may seem silly – but we are living in the times of the silly unexpected becoming the norm. I wish her luck and her business – she has a good head on her shoulders (except if you come from Nova Scotia – inside joke).
The point of the story – hedge and expect the unexpected. We had a saying on the trading floor – expect that one of your stocks will make a 3 standard deviation move when you least expect it! If you are prepared for that – you should be fine!
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EURO weak or strong
As people are running for cover we see them run to and away from the Euro. The interesting point is that Trichet would rather play follow the leader (as far as interest rate cuts or capital injections) from his simple point of view – the Euro’s neighbors are worst off and their Central Banks have dual/multiple purpose mandates – from increasing employment to bailing out companies. The ECB wants to kept the focus on the Euro’s strength and inflation – true the Euro members share a currency – but their nations have different policies, bonds, governments, etc. Thus the ECB keeps focus on inflation and the currency – and leaves the bonds, bailouts, and employment issues to the regional governments.
With a further stability concern of foreign nations currency – from the U.S. on the road to Hyper-inflation from massive printing and injections of capital to Iceland’s collapse – Trichet wants to keep the wall up and not venture down too many cross relationship paths that will put the Euro at risk from making investment or loans that rely on Foreign debt or the strength of their currency. It’s safer to sit behind the wall and watch and to ONLY react to local concerns – or so his policy to date has been. Of course many of the regional governments want him to take similar measures as Bernanke and focus on employment or bailouts.
Milton Friedman had forecasted that the EURO area would splinter if the Global Economy took any major hit – so far it is remaining fairly resilient in the face of everything. Talk of the UK dropping the Pound and taking up the EURO has been hitting the newsstands. In a Bloomberg article this morning – Thomas Mayer (economist at Deutsche Bank) states “Serious new challenges are taking shape that could still jeopardize the very survival of the economic and monetary union.” This is probably the test the Friedman was concerned about. His issue was simple – having a FIAT (faith back currency) shared among independent countries with different GDP make-ups, bonds, and economic/political policies can put incredible stress on that relationship to the point of breaking. Remember while Germany is the big industrial country of the ECB, many others are consumers rather than producers. So far Switzerland and the UK have remained with their own currency.
At this point it is hard to see what will happen – no doubt the Euro is facing a big stress. Is their safety in numbers (it would seem so – so far) as Iceland (who remain outside with their Korna) failed. Would Iceland of failed if they used the Euro? Well certainly their currency would not of collapsed – that being said it might of HIDE how bad the problems with their banking and financial system. Does that mean there are other countries with as deep problems as Iceland – but because they use the Euro we are not fully aware? And if that be that case – how much does that trickle over to damaging other countries that share in that Euro.
Safety in numbers or collectives collapse? So far Trichet is staying the course. There is an interesting article at Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arCqnv0hrrpc&refer=home
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Big 3 to get their money
As I mentioned all along they WERE going to get their money – it was just the terms in which they are getting them (and the back scratching) that needed to be defined. Wagner will be out at GM (regardless if he is to blame or not) – Congress HAS to act tough – they have tossed a few strong words (to assure the people and the BIG 3) they mean business and of course some upper management will HAVE to take the blame and be the fall guy for Congress play the part. As in a Shakespeare play – all people will take their parts and play their rolls. However I believe this to be another Shakespeare tragedy – definitely not comedy.
My contention – the business plan is busted and there is no PLAN to fix it – other than “we’ll make smaller cars and hybrids!” that is NOT a business plan. Unlike Lee Iacocca that showed up with 100s of pages of plans, restructuring, cost projections, etc. Lee showed up as if he was raising money with a solid business plan back in 1980 – a plan to convince Congress to INVEST $1.2 billion. These CEOs are flying in on their Jet’s with no plans but a lot of talk – and that talk is we need money – please bail us out.
While I NEVER thought Lee Iacocca was a hero (I don’t know why anyone would) he was no doubt a smart CEO and KNEW how to present a plan, market, and sell. He had no problems rolling up his sleeves to make Congress feel GOOD about “INVESTING” (bailing out) Chrysler. He did it to such perfection – the world saw him as a HERO. Buffet has the same skill (as he makes ruthless deals and acquisitions that on paper rival hostile take-overs) – Buffet does it with finesse - so much so that people look to him as this wise old friendly man that they are happy to do ANYTHING he recommends. You don’t become a Billionaire from being a nice old man.
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Futures Pre-market
The futures are getting a good pop in the early session. The stimulus packages are coming to town and may the “worst is behind us”. Regardless the ARB traders will be shorting futures in the opening and buying the basket – which should create a pop at the opening.
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Support / Resistance
Testing supports and now to test resistance. Could this be a start of a year-end rally?
INDU 8000 (8500) 9000 (We have been moving up and down through that 8500 level as it has been the pivot point. We closed above it on Friday and look to see a good boost this morning. Is 9000 in the cards – sure why not.)
NDX 1000-1100 / 1200 (We could easily see 1200 today – the question is do we close above it or is it an invitation to come back in a short this pig?)
SPX 800 (850) 900 (Again – 850 a pivot point that tracks the INDU in reaction – a test of 900 is a good chance this morning. It’s about the close!)
RUT 400 (450) 500 (Could we see 500? Sure – it depends on the euphoric nature of the market – but watch the close.)
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Conclusion
Obama has already mentioned his big BOOM in infrastructure spending in this nation. His team is at the ready to start printing 100s of billions as he stated that projects among the state governors are “shovel ready”. Spur job growth with government funding and rebuilding. He declined on Meet the Press as to the cost of such a stimulus, but he said “… it is going to be substantial!” It was pointed out that many of these plans will surpass a TRILLION dollar budget deficit as it already balloons with more stimulus checks, bailouts, and government loans ….. the scary response…. "we can’t worry, short term, about the deficit!" – regardless of what you put in front or behind that statement – it means the stress load you put on the dollar and the entire economic system will be BACK BREAKING.
I admire Obama, I like Obama, I seriously believes he REALLY WANTS to help everyone (from people to businesses). The problem I have is simple – what may SEEM like a good solution today (to keep people in jobs and companies in business – by printing and giving huge sums of money) – means the future we could see a dollar implosion of an epic kind. Just like politicians of the past that believed “Home ownership should be the RIGHT of every American” and thus through the Congress regulation and oversight LOWERED the lending standards and increased the massive leverage at Freddie and Fannie – what seemed at the time a good thing – as all Americans started buying homes and driving the prices of homes higher and borrowed from their equity is now coming back to haunt us. The same is true for the government printing massive sums of money and bailing out everyone and anyone.
My prediction – if we stay this course of government bailout of companies and people – through the massive injection of fiat currency – is a very ugly picture that will make the dot.com and housing bubble look like a small joke. An Icelandic collapse overnight or Zimbabwe printing to hyper-inflation to bail themselves out is a very real possibility.
Just like at the beginning – when I mentioned the firm’s concerned about spending 10x their marketing budget at the 1980 Olympics – it might of seemed silly to hedge against a no show at the Olympics – it seemed an impossibility – even SILLY. Yet it happened. They don’t call it a “Black Swan” event because there are 100s of Black Swans flying around – they call it a Black Swan event because you never see one!
Think about this – remember when talking to your friends and neighbors when the dot.com boom started – even Buffet was called a fool of not understanding the NEW ECONOMY. He said “I can’t invest in a company if I can’t understand how they make money!” – it collapsed. Remember your friends and neighbors telling you how they became wise in the ways of real-estate investing and house prices only went up, Schiff, Paul, and others were called fools when they said it was not sustainable! – it collapsed.
We can’t just print money out of thin air and expect it to maintain value.
The value of the Dollar is held by a very slender thread of Faith. There is NO GOLD, SILVER, PROPERTY, EQUITY, or ANY INTRINSIC VALUE behind it. It is SIMPLY faith.
I have said it before and Voltaire said it 100s of years ago “All fiat currencies return to their intrinsic value ----- zero!”
2009 – 2010 – 2011, on the current path inflation will creep upon us – it may not happen like in Zimbabwe or Iceland, but it is not IF, but rather WHEN it will happen. We may see the likes of Volker of the 70s take rates to 15% or higher just to bring some resemblance of value to our FIAT currency. Iceland’s currency collapsed – they recently took their interest rates to 18%.
Be prepared – because if you rely on “HOPE” you are never going to get out of the starting gate. There is a place for FAITH in our life, but I would argue that is for our spiritual and religious beliefs – not in a fiat currency controlled by man. God did not create fiat currency – that should be proof enough not to have faith in something manipulated by man.
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