The 10-year yield continues to head higher and the 4% rate is in the cards. Money is certainly coming out and the fairly sharp move to the upside has also been spurred by the weak dollar. A dispersion of investments from commodities, equities, and foreign currencies. But the talk this morning is about the unemployment numbers – which could reverse that depending on the number. That number may not just affect equity markets – but could create some volatility in the currencies and bonds.
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Unemployment numbers & the hidden story
On CNBC this morning the big shocker (or hidden story) was how much have the revisions added to the total unemployment numbers. There are a total of 6.7 million people unemployed, but the revisions have added over 1 million to that number (over 15%). On CNBC they mentioned that is what creates the skeptical eye to the number being reported, what ARE the revisions going forward. If the revisions continue upward the more skeptical investors become to the unemployment numbers as they are released.
The good, yet confusing news: The numbers are out and the futures are spiking. The payrolls fell by 345,000 (the smallest decrease in over 6 months). The consensus was 520,000 – so it seems a shocker on the front end (as many said it could NOT be below 400,000 – the lowest forecast was for 450,000) – so everyone seems to be shocked by the numbers. What created such a huge drop, while the ADP and others did not indicate such a massive slowdown. Also the revision in April was down to 504,000 (a good sign and reverse of the previous increase that had added over 1 million to the unemployment numbers). Is this a one month aberration? The massive wave of unemployment from the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies will probably increase this number again in the coming months according to Bloomberg.
The bad news, it seems that there is not any NEW jobs as those remain on unemployment increased more than expected sending the unemployment rate to 9.4%, higher than forecast of 9.2% average. Which seems to be ignored.
There is actually two stories here: 1. The jobless rate is slowing down (“green shoots”), 2. The NET unemployment came in HIGHER than expected – showing no signs of recovery (“weeds”). The jobless rate is clearly showing that we are getting to a bottom, but the net unemployment rate is showing that no jobs are being created. It’s a glass half full vs. a glass half empty. They both are correct – short-term view is the market is finding a bottom, the long-term view is that a recovery is farther off. Both are right – it would seem the short-term play is get long, the long-term play is to hedged. It’s more of a traders market, than a investor market and long-term investors should be looking to lock in gains and roll up hedges. Looking at these knee jerk up moves as short-term opportunity.
David Rosenberg (Bloomberg) said the numbers could be spun into “green shoot” talk as they look at the headline data, but looking at the numbers there is some concerns. One interesting point is that ACTUAL wages are down – but what sends them up is government sponsored programs which are included (including food stamps and other government funding – which is on the rise) – so it may “seem” the bottom line is better – but the actual earned income has dropped. Additionally – those that fall off unemployment (no longer counted) added together with the job growth rate (new hires) shows a very negative recovery. He did say the good news is that layoffs are slowing down – but there is some seasonable adjustment (and the auto industry may ramp back up those numbers). However – what is concerning is the huge revision swings and looking at a total revisions that have added over 1 million to the unemployment numbers is concerning. Additionally – there is also the measure of birth and deaths of businesses – interesting statistic, indicating that there is some serious birth/death noise in these numbers.
The market (futures) knee jerked up – on a huge print – but seems to be coming off a little from those highs – as investors look beyond just the headline number. Bonds getting hit hard – sending up long-term yields. And the currency markets are seeing some volatility.
The bad news – unemployment rate has been raised above 10% for 2009, the market doesn’t seem to care.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWbpOrWSssE8
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Apple – Jobs is back
After Jobs had left for medical reasons – the good news is that it seems that he is healthy enough to return. There is also news about some new generation iPhones – all which brings back some optimism and euphoria back to Apple. Not that it needs any help after its recent rally. Good to hear that he is better.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1142874322&play=1
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Wal-mart annual party!
As I have been mentioning Wal-mart is the recession stock play that for anyone with a retail play should seriously consider. It has done very well against the broad market and their retail numbers have been surprising vs. competitors. I think Wal-mart is still a long-term safe play as I remain skeptical about a long-term recovery and many will still need places to shop like Wal-mart. They have a good story in this economic landscape.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a11ePJbLBGN4
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Oil and its future
Initially when the job numbers came out - oil SPIKED above 70 for the first time, but it is coming back off hard. JP Morgan and Goldman are forecasting oil prices as high as 80 to 90 dollars this year. JP Morgan has also been making some interesting economic plays. Certainly the dollar is playing a big role in the prices and if the dollar remains weak – I think JP Morgan or Goldman could be right.
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Futures Pre-market
The futures made a huge jump on the headline number of job losses slowing, but the net unemployment (getting less attention) went above expectation to 9.4%. Futures initial gap up has come off from the pop – but still up. Definitely a momentum trade – expect a higher opening.
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Support / Resistance
Resistance are broken based on the futures – we got some serious volatility after the job numbers in oil, futures, commodities, and bonds.
INDU 8750? (Futures are pointing to a higher opening.)
NDX 1500? (Again a pop above the 1500 line in the futures – do we close above it.)
SPX 950? (Above 950 – do we close above it?)
RUT 540 (Almost there.)
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Conclusion
There is definitely two camps – those that are focusing on short-term finding the bottom and those concerned about the longer-term recovery. If we were to judge the economy by the market conditions it would seem that everything is doing fantastic, but on the economic front when looking at commodities, bonds, and the man on the street it is a different story. I heard an interesting comment on Bloomberg radio the other day – a economist said that if we are to look at the difference of the economic conditions vs. the market, it is a simple reflection of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. He went on to say if you ask the man on the street – things are bad, they have no credit, loss of jobs, underwater on the equity of their home, having problems finding jobs, and inflation (gas prices and food prices). If you ask the Wall Street analyst things are “green shoots” and looking better and they will just point at the stock market. The problem he went on to say is that Wall Street forgets that they need the man on the street, because it is the man on the street that eventually DRIVES the economy by spending money – he needs a job, he needs credit lines, he needs to be able to spend. I think it was a simple, yet astute, observation – there is certainly a disconnect between the market reaction and what is going on with the man on the street. But it is hard to see that if you are an analyst that never gets out of your Manhattan office.
Another story that is not getting much attention is that Sheila Bair is going after Citigroup and wants to “shake up” the executives – implying firing the CEO (Pandit). I guess that the government sees bigger problems at Citi than we are aware of.
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