We had a really strong close yesterday, even after the Goldman gloomy economic forecast. Intra-day we sold off pretty hard, but got a good rally into the close. I was feeling pretty optimistic when I saw we got above some serious (previous) support levels (SPX 1400 and INDU –close to- 12750) – I would think that we could get a strong follow through this morning and Bernanke could give the market a further kick in the pants to the upside with his speech today.
However, continuing economic data is pushing down on the futures in the pre-market. The market looks (at this point) to drop 1% at the opening – so again it would seem that economic fundamentals is still the king of the ring against any technical supports that we would traditional use as an indication to get long. Of course the market has not open – but it looks like the supports that I previously mentioned may not hold today. Of course there is the volatility of Bernanke speaking later today (please note this is NOT a rate decision speech – that is not until Jan 30th)
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ECB keep rates unchanged
In the face of the u coming Fed meeting (Jan 30th) and the expectation of a rate cut (either 25bps or 50bps), the Euro Central Bank keep their rates unchanged at 4%. The ECB saw a huge pop in inflationary measurements in December and are rightly concern about curtailing that before it gets out of hand. Any cut in the interest rates could send inflation higher – according to European economist.
``The ECB's hands are tied at the moment,'' said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB Group Plc in London. ``Recent data clearly point to growing inflation risks, but it has to wait and see what the impact of the credit crisis on growth will be.''
It would seem the ECB is more concerned about the economy, consumers, and inflation – rather than bailing out the banks or justifying business models of the retail franchises – who all have complained and demanded (expected) rate cuts. While Europe is seeing problems in the sub-prime sector and credit squeeze – several have indicated that they would offer short-term stimulus and over-night relief (example was the 500 billion short-term loan) – they would not adjust interest rates solely to justify pour lending practices or bad business decisions to the determent of the economy (inflation).
Several economist predict that if the ECB remains unchanged and if the US continues to cut rates- the inversion in interest rates (where Euro becomes higher than US) will put even more pressure on the US dollar, a slow-down in US treasury purchases by large foreign investment funds, and continue to reduce the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Some have even predicted that the US dollar as a world reserve currency would fall below 50%, which would seriously curtail the US’s ability to dominate trade policies – taking away the “Bite” of the big tiger.
It is obvious that the US Fed is at the hands of the US banks, financial institutions, and other lending firms. Remember our Treasury Sec. is the ex-CEO of a major financial firm. All efforts, meeting, and government forces have been aimed to keeping the banks liquid, solvent, and taking the bad debt of their shoulder – at the continuing determent to inflation and the economy. Of course the Fed can’t serve two masters. The ECB has chosen to serve the economy and inflationary concerns – rather than the financial institutions. Maybe Europe’s problems are not as bad as it is here in the US, regardless they are serving the economy and the US is serving the financial institutions.
Only time will tell – but I think the economist are right that if we continue to cut rates (to 2.5% as Goldman predicts) and ECB remains unchanged we will see an increase in inflation and the dollar continue to fall. It will be interesting to see if Bernanke touches on this in his speech today.
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Wal-Mart beats estimates – Macy’s misses sales forecast
The big news this morning is that Wal-Mart beats estimates (2.4% climb in Dec.) – however we should not forget that estimates have been SERIOUSLY lowered and ultra-conservative. Beating very low estimates should not be a reason for cheering – however it is SLIGHTLY good news. The stock is looking up $.30 in the pre-open – not the kind of excitement we could of hoped for when beating estimates.
It was interesting that Wal-mart sales that did increase were in the food and prescription drugs – with an additional boost in electronics from holiday sales. However, both the food and prescription drugs are not offered in all Wal-mart stores and are a fairly new segment from their traditional sales area. These areas (even with the slow-down) had expected to rise as they get more penetration. The core areas of sales however did not look that exciting.
Macy’s (that does not get the boost from selling food or prescription drugs) sales fell 7.9% - missing even analyst expected fall of 6.4%. The holiday sales and even after X-mass sales were not able to boost sales as hoped.
Several other retailers are reporting lack-luster holiday sales. However, that is the past – what are they going to do in the future? Well – they are all expecting “difficult sales” and “slower growth”. Food, drugs, and “necessities” continue to do well in recession or inflation periods – since we can’t live without them. Wal-Mart is thanking their lucky stars that they have moved into those sectors to help ease the slowdown in traditional retail consumer products. Target has also moved into the prescription drugs sector – but has not penetrated the market as deep as Wal-mart has. Target’s food section is expanding but remains for the most part in dry-goods – where Wal-mart has taken the full leap in to Grocery Store merchandise.
Expect a continuing slow-down in the retail sector.
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Futures Pre-open
The futures were pretty flat earlier and then started to plunge. Several have pointed out to the ECB decisions to remain unchanged in their interest rates – with US expected to make as much as a 50bps cut. While Alcoa and Wal-mart seem to bring some relative strength to the pre-open (as they had better reports and their stocks are slightly up) it doesn’t seem to bring enough enthusiastic optimism to drive the futures or the pre-market up. We look to have a 1% drop at the opening. Futures are front running the cash by as much as 3-5 points – so the Arb traders are in there. Expect some open selling pressure on the basket to close the future ARB long positions.
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Support / Resistance
It looked like we were going to get a follow through rally this morning with the strong close and the SPX getting above 1400 – a key program trading area – but it seems that will be short lived.
INDU 12750 ???? (We are right there and it IS a pivot point. We need to close above it to see any strength return – we had a good run at the close – but that is now dying in the futures pre-open)
NDX 1950 ???? (Another area that is a pivot point – the big tech stocks have been kick in the gut pretty hard and may LOOK like they have found a support level technically – but it seems that economic fundamentals is kicking technical’s butt!)
SPX 1400 (This is a key area to close above – we did it yesterday – can we stay above it today – specially at the close?)
RUT 700 / 740 (At least we are above 700 for whatever that means. The supports have clearly been broken in the broadest market – not a good sign – we need to see serious strength here)
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Conclusion
Bernanke speaks today and after the ECB move NOT to cut rates – it will be interesting how he spins it and the expected rate cut we should be having on Jan 30th. He is sharpening his sword – and whether he cuts 25 or 50bps – well who knows – the banks want 50bps – hell they want 100bps – keep the money flowing. His speech today could inject a knee jerk (up or down) reaction – just from his tone.
Expect the “Talking heads” to come out in droves to read the “Tea leaves” as to what each word he says ACTUALLY means!
“He said “A rate cut” not “THE rate cut”, the use of “A” instead of “THE” would indicate that he may only cut 25bps, because if he used “THE” it would clearly indicate a 75% chance of a 50bps cut”. ß STUPID, but enjoyable.
Anyway – expect some continued pressure. Increase in volatility. We could get a major rally – if there is a “feel good” sensation from his speech – but as an orator– he pretty much sucks.
Stay vigilant and do NOT rely on technical’s – because they continue to get beaten up by the economic fundamentals and news. If you do get long or short – HEDGE!!!
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