Yesterday saw hesitational strength to get us up above the support levels needed to start building some confidence that we have seen a near-term bottom. Bernanke spoke and pretty much indicated that cuts would be coming – probably more than one (to the cheers of the banks and lending institutions). He further spoke of special deals at the discount window and tried to divert concerns that just because a institution is going to the discount window to borrow overnight – is NOT a reflection of their solvency or that the reserve pool is not deep enough (he shouldn’t just not of said anything about CONCERNS – it just highlights the fact that they ARE having problems and that there is NOT enough money in the reserve pool).
The market did get a slight up-down-up jerky reaction to his stump speech that didn’t really tell us anything. However, it was the BofA takeover talks of Countrywide in the late trading session that sent the market higher – I don’t know why the market would go up on that – since it is not necessary GOOD NEWS. None-the-less the market did get a good rally – but at the end of the day at the close weakness revisited the market and it started to pull off again. It goes to show that we are still driven by Volatility – expect more.
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B of A saving face or smart business decision?
BA is taking over Country Wide (CFC) in a all cash deal for $4 billion ($7.16 a share). Now you have to ask yourself is this a SMART business decision? BA would probably be the ONLY company to make such a purchase of CFC, since they have already SUNK $2 billion into late last year. I would call it more of a Take Under, rather than a Take Over – since it is 7% below yesterday’s closing price! Country Wide (CFC) fell from the $20s down to $5 since the BA investment – rather a cheap price – but with a butt-ton of risk behind that supposed cheap price. I guess the rumors of Bankruptcy was not far from the truth – because you KNOW this would NOT be happening unless Bankruptcy was a REAL POSSIBILITY!
Let’s peal back this stinky onion:
1. CFC is under several investigations about lending and accounting issues.
2. They most certainly will be facing “class action” lawsuits over the next several years.
3. They have 100s of billions of loans on the books who’s ratings are VERY questionable
4. They have continual massive debt and are in serious needs of capital.
5. They have a reinsurance operation that requires capital reserves to off-set insurance risk – money they don’t have.
6. They expect MORE defaults.
I don’t think any other bank or financial institution would touch CFC with a 10’ pole. Way to much risk, debt, lawsuit exposure, and forward debt problems. However, BA made a $2 billion money losing investment in them 5 months ago. Are they trying to save the bad investment, by throwing good money after bad. No doubt the CEO of BA is fully embarrassed by their crappy initial investment of $2 billion (which is GONE) – is he saving face?
From what I see and what I have heard – this is a $4 billion dollar crap shoot – that has extensively MORE risk behind it. I would NOT be holding any BA stock – that is for sure. I think an analyst on CNBC called it right by saying that CFC is the next “Asbestos” issue in the coming years – and I wouldn’t want to be defending that PIG!
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Merrill Writes Down MORE!!!! (Who’d a thought?)
As I keep mentioning that these write-downs are NOT sales – they are simply mark-to-market (or best guess) losses of their holdings. Until they sell them anything is a subjective loss and the risk remains. Before the new CEO Thain took over a month ago, CEO O’Neal was manning the helm when their ship took a broadside of $8.4 billion in write downs. It was important to note that it was implied this WAS it and we are putting the past behind us and moving forward – on the road to recovery.
I saw Thain’s interview when he took over and he said that he has REVIEWED the holdings and spoke with different division and are looking to shore-up the hole and get this sinking ship back to port, forecasted write-downs going forward were between $4 million (conservative) to $6 billion more. However, I think he either did a poor review or has really NO IDEA how big that hole is – since the expected write-downs have moved from $4 to $8 to $12 and now $15 billion. It’s apparent that the transparency to the problem is so cloudy that the new CEO really doesn’t have a handle on it. If he doesn’t know – then what are we to expect going forward.
This breech in the haul of Merrill’s ship is below the waterline and they are taking on water fast. That is a problem – because they can’t move forward unless they get MORE money. $15 billion is too much for them to keep the positions and now they are actively looking for $4 billion in investments. They are looking to those VULTURE sovereign funds (that are not transparent) in the Middle East, China, and other countries that are willing to invest the money to keep them afloat. There is trepidation among the Vultures – because the problems at the end of last year and becoming bigger – not smaller. More write downs and CFC getting taken UNDER – is not confidence – but rather more concern. If a Vulture steps in they will be DEMANDING and GETTING huge stakes in the company, warrants, guaranteed interest payments (probably over 10%), etc.
Side Note: I wonder when a journalist is going to ask ANY of the presidential candidates (specially the senators that argued AGAINST) about these Foreign Sovereign (none transparent) funds taking large stakes in US Financial firms. This is rather alarming if you are concerned about the Chinese, Middle Eastern, and (unknown Middle East Investors) taking large investment stakes and possible specially controlling stakes in some of the US (if not the world’s) largest financial institutions.
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Trade Deficit WIDENS more than Forecast
U.S. trade deficit widens more than forecast in Nov. to $63.1 billion (9.3% increase), expectations were for $59.5 billion. The blame for the widening deficit is of course the “black gold”, oil! Add on to a weak dollar and higher energy costs – the trade deficit will continue to widen. As I mentioned yesterday that London and the ECB left rates unchanged – deciding to shore up the economy and fight inflation. When Bernanke tipped his hand to expected rate cuts yesterday – the dollar sank rapidly and further (1.48 Euro) – which will continue to increase deficit issues. Additionally, since oil is priced in U.S. dollars – it is only expected to see oil move higher with the dollar going lower – regardless of oil’s supply and demand. I don’t know how much premium in oil is attributed to the dollar’s current low value – but I would guess it is about $1-$5 dollars.
Of course these numbers will feed the economist in the ongoing debate of whether we are in, not in, will be in, will avoid a recession. At least economist are getting some air time. If you are looking for a job – economist (and their many opinions) are in high demand.
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Futures Pre-open
We have seen weakness in the morning after ML announced a larger than expected write-down and people absorb the CFC take UNDER (7% below yesterday’s close). There is some weakness in the tech sector – lending to lower futures. The ARB has been expanding and contracting all morning – as traders second guess all the news – including the trade deficit. Uncertainty is currently driving the futures. However sell pressure is looking for a lower opening at the open. The ARB is fluctuating between 1-3 – not much, however we may see the future bounce a little as ARB traders buy the futures getting ready to short the basket at the opening. After that – it is anyone’s guess where we are going.
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Support / Resistance
Above supports is a good sign – but we are seeing a weaker open – according to futures.
INDU 12,750 / 13,000 (It would seem that we have found SOME level of support at 12,750. How strong or REAL that support is …..well that is fairly subjective. Program trading has lighten up with major supports breaking and volatility being injected into the market.)
NDX 1900 / 2000 (We are in the middle and I don’t think you can call it until Bernanke injects a boost with a 50bps rate cut.)
SPX 1400 / 1450 (Major players are watching that 1450 for a close above that at the end of the week – to give them confidence to re-enter the market (abet for the short-term). However, if we fall below 1400 at the close – it will not look good going into next week and I would suspect that our next hope for a solid rally will come with Bernanke’s rate cut – abet very short-term)
RUT 700 / 740 (The broad market just looks like crap. While it looks like 700 maybe a NEW bottom – it is not a healthy bottom – 740 was a MAJOR support area that fully failed. What is the strong support – the 740 resistance level. If we can close above that today – it might give us some strong momentum into next week.)
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Conclusion
CFC might as well of declared bankruptcy – being taken under for $4 billion is not a sign that they think things are turning around. If they thought they had bottom and that $5 was a good buy – they would NEVER sell. Merrill Lynch possibly writing down $15 billion – well it looks like these firms are still hemorrhaging serious money. Bernanke talking about special deals at the Discount Window – means the government is BAILING THEM OUT and shouldering the risk. The rate cuts will continue to put pressure on the dollar, especially since ECB and LONDON are NOT cutting.
I am skeptical to get long equities and still think commodities (and their brethren) is pretty strong to the upside. I think Goldman is right and we will probably see the GDP go negative in the coming quarters and Bernanke will continue to serve the Financial firms by cutting rates – to the determent of the dollar.
Silver lining – Well Euro, Gold, Oil, commodities, and inflation proof stocks are all doing well. The Finance sector is still pretty ugly.
Volatility is still the driver in this market – the VIX continues to lag the skew and (real) intra-day volatility.
If we stay in these ranges or even go lower – expect a HUGE OPTIMISTIC rally when Bernanke cuts by 50bps. However – that will probably be short-lived.
Hedge 100%
Continue to monitor dollar, interest rates, commodities, Gold, Oil – to inflationary pressure.
Don’t be a hero
Shorts could also get screwed with EXPECTED HUGE upside Knee Jerks – so buy in some cheap calls against the shorts.
Watch your short-VEGA.
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