We slipped back down to those pivot points yesterday as hope that the Senate would pass the Auto Bailout began to fade. The market still has a rough road ahead and so too does the economy. The Auto Bailout has over-shadowed job’s data, treasuries trading at or below zero, and many other economic news – as if the Bailout alone will save us all.
Then after the close, as excepted, the Senate voted DOWN the Auto Bailout – just like they did the TARP. However, I am sure they will revisit the drawing board and they will pile on their “pork” and “ear-marks” so all the members can carve out a piece of the pie, I am sure the American Samoans will become enlightened, that old NASCAR track will get repaved, Bow and Arrow manufactures will receive tax relief, and that poor Indian Casino will get a new entrance. All thanks to their representatives piggy backing onto a bill a little money for this and a little money for that. No doubt it will pass – just after everyone gets their fair share.
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GM turns into a pumpkin?
The final hour for GM is upon us – do they get the last minute save (after the Senate adds in the much needed pork?) or do they turn into a pumpkin at mid-night. The reality that either way it is still bankruptcy – whether it is subsidized government funding or filing chapter 11 – the difference is well – nothing. Sure – I will concede the minutia – but money loss is money loss – government bailout in one form or another is government bailout.
I am of the belief that we will see a last minute save – of course with more strings attached. One thing is for sure the world markets and the futures after hours sure didn’t like it. Those damn Senators – why can’t they just pass it? It’s a double edge sword – you want to help, but with who’s money and at what risk to whom?
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Ponzi is alive and well
If you thought chain letters were the only thing left of the never ending promises of riches – well Ponzi just pulled a big one. Madoff (former head of NASD) had some massive investment fund that was just a massive hole. At least he admitted it, “There is no innocent explanation.” He just traded and lost the money and paid them with money that wasn’t there. He even expected to go to jail – hmmmm – crazy?!?
It seems odd – because there was many parts to his business – from NASD market making to traditional investment strategies. I think there is more to this story than meets the eye. It is a massive operation – and losses are losses. However it seemed that the firm, from my initial reading, was WAY WAY WAY over leveraged. I mean incredibly over leverage. I think that was the big screw-up. If he had his leverage close to anything reasonable – he could report losses and gains – but with anything – leveraging up has seemed to be the game that almost everyone has played.
While shocking – it seems no different than what AIG, Freddie, Fannie, GM, and several other companies are doing – using charge offs and tax forwards to show profits today to avoid losses and then borrowing more based on AAA credit, which they paid Moody’s for. Of course these companies do it under the guise of accounting trickery and instead of getting punished they get a bailout. Give me a break!
Let me ask you this – if a Company sells a widget for $1000, but they buyer only puts down $100 and finances $900. Should the company be able to book $1000 of revenue? Of course they do. That game is going on for years and now they get bailed out. I am not defending Madoff AT ALL – but I think some of these companies are no better than his stupid game. Maybe he too could apply for a bailout. Sad… very sad….
Lesson – don’t exceed your capital and if you want to use leverage – make sure you are HEDGE against net principal. Greed breeds stupidity.
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Dollar and inflation
Of course smarter people than me are talking about deflation – because in my humble opinion – they are focused on the present small picture. US Producer Prices fall 2.2% - which would seem that inflation is not a concern – but is it. No doubt prices have come off for materials, however is that more indicative of the current dollar strength (which started to weaken this week). Producer Prices are a 1 month lag – which is note worthy. Thus – the talking heads are saying that inflation concerns are diminished – I would add for now!
Now doubt the problem is a recession (I am sure there are still a few kooks that don’t think we are in one) – but there are fools that think we can’t have a recession AND inflation at the same time. Why not, I ask? Of course there answers are all academical and I have news – we live in the real world not a theoretical vacuum.
Inflation can be caused by many things – from debt to a loss of faith. Remember – keep it simple – we can’t keep injecting 100s of billions (if not trillions) into the system. While Treasuries are reflecting the lemmings are chasing safety and even PAYING for it (via the cost of money – but in some cases even negative yield) – that is just a short-term rush for the exits. The problem is that is domestic money chasing safe haven – financing our own debt. It’s like a circle of lending – and what SEEMS to work today – the big picture is a lot more ugly.
However –what does this mean – Bernanke can again finger point to some government data to explain away another rate cut.
Folks – we are going to ZERO interest rates – hang on it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
For those that don’t speak Japanese – you better start boning up – because we have some serious learning to do from their failed economic plan – which we seem to be following.
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Futures Pre-market
The futures got a good whack over-night as the Auto Bailout got the “No Go” vote from the Senate. The additional government data that has been hiding under the Auto Shadow – was also not looking to hot. The futures are coming off their lows and the spreads are big. Expect ARB traders to buy futures and short the cash basket. Thus we WILL see some pressure at the opening.
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Support / Resistance
At Pivot points from yesterday’s drop and looking to head down to supports – for now.
INDU 8000 (8500) 9000 (Just above 8500 yesterday – but the futures are pointing to a 8400 range at the opening. Do we get sticky at the pivot or head to support?)
NDX 1000-1100 / 1200-1250 (We are just below that 1200 resistance gap and looking to test the upper 1100 band of support. The futures are getting a slight bounce off the lows this morning.)
SPX 800 (850) 900 (We are above the pivot- but a visit to it is in the cards – watch the close)
RUT 400 (450) 500 (At the pivot)
This day could be some serious intraday volatility – no doubt the opening will send us lower – but if there is hints in the Senate of a Auto Bailout re-vote that COULD pass – then we could get a pop again. Watch the close – as they relate to the support/pivot/resistance levels.
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Conclusion
This economy has a long LONG way to go. Layoffs are being announced and more are coming. These are the days about EARNING your money and not just showing up for a pay check. Don’t be offended by that statement – but the reality is that we (as a nation) have become FAT, DUMB, and HAPPY living beyond our means. The Piper is coming to town for a serious SMACK DOWN to reality. No longer are Biz Dev, Middle Management, and Store Greeters going to be a value role in any company. These are the times when those Blue Collar workers with skills prove they have more worth than just that low wage they get. We can’t live without those that can throw a hammer or turn a wrench. Fat is being trimmed – and that’s just reality. There are going to be causalities of those less deserving – but remember – at the end of the day – it is NOT how much money you have – it is about family, friends, and health.
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