Despite the negative news the market reacted rather strongly on Friday – who’s to know why or even question it. These are the days when order flow can easily move the market up or down. The volatility across the board and the skew have been major players in TRYING to determine the outcome of the market, while at the same time trying to anticipate big shocks to the system.
These can be very trying times and I know – some days are more trying than others (for all of us). The uncertainty abounds – and with that also comes frayed nerves. But this is also about focusing your energy to trade, hedge, and invest wisely. Avoid the temptation to leverage your positions too much – or taking additional hard delta risks for any reason. Principal protection is worth MORE than any POSSIBLE gains.
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TARP available to the Big 3?
Arm twisting abounds – if the Democrat controlled Congress had it their way – Paulson would of cut a check from the Tarp for the auto-makers and the bailout vote would have been sidelined. However – he stock to his guns and didn’t even open the check book. Now (lame duck) President Bush is bringing (what if any) powers to bare on the situation. He has indicated that part of the TARP would be available and would not be a long process – but he has reserved any more information until he is ready to announce HIS rescue plan. Is he planning his Swan Song – Bailing out the Big 3? Who knows – the infighting between the GOP and Dems and Administration remains – it’s nice they can all get along.
GM is looking a little (very little) higher in the pre-market – “hoping” that they will get that much needed check before the week is out. The skew in the puts is insane – price expectations are a serious chance of a bust.
Don’t buy GM or Ford – HOPING that a bailout is the answer or that they have a future – they don’t and any long bet on them is foolish and needs to be monitored closely – You very well could get a decent POP in the stock – but that could be intra-day short-term, so you need to play the position tight. Most definitely NOT a long-term buy.
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FED – where has the money gone?
The FED has REFUSED a Bloomberg News request to disclose the recipient of more than 2 TRILLION of emergency loans and the assets that are posted as collateral. Not long ago – Bernanke told Congress that the FED (Discount Window) was only a short-term loan and they have always been paid back. Shortly thereafter he extended the loan period from 30 to 90 days, lowered the collateral standards to include (ANY rated paper – including defaulted junk), and also opened the window to NONE Fed members (Freddie, Fannie, Investment Banks – remember Lehman?).
Unlike the TARP – the FED (while it does report to Congress) does NOT have inform Congress as to WHO or WHAT it has loaned – only that it HAS loaned and the amount. The lending by the FED has increased by 138% in 12 weeks. Bloomberg has filed TWO requests for information – but the Fed’s only response has been “… an unprecedented crisis” in which “loss in confidence in and between financial institutions can occur with lightning speed and devastating effects.” – Great!
So long and thanks for all the fish!
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Interest Rates – going to ZERO
We should expect to see interest rates get cut again – the reason – to spur lending – yeah right. Expectations are for another cut and we could start to see trouble on the treasury side – sure the lemmings are diving in for negative yield – believing it to be safe (the safety is that $2 trillion of unknown loans that they will not talk about) – yet the fools continue to rush in.
Expect that bubble to burst – and when it does – I really don’t know what to expect – except MORE VOLATILITY!
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Futures Pre-market
The futures have been mixed – go figure – we don’t know what is happening with the Big 3, who the FED has lent money too, and how much Ben will cut rates. Expect a mixed opening.
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Support / Resistance
INDU 8000 (8500) 9000 (Where too? Play it safe)
NDX 1100 / 1200-1250 (Upper band still?)
SPX 800 (850) 900 (Above the pivot)
RUT 400 (450) 500 (Again – above the pivot)
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Conclusion
We should have more news coming out this week – know the fate of the Big 3, interest rates, and a better idea if money is actually making it through the system. We have a long way to go and the numbers are not looking like we will recover any time soon. I am putting 2009 in the recession bucket for sure – it’s not like all of a sudden companies are going to go on a hiring spree next year – with what money and who is going to buy what? This might be the last big credit spending X-mass in a long time. So a rough ride is plan – just be ready. Don’t also look for any big rallies in the market – unless we have a late December rally (which would be covering only – not a market turn around – that would be a big Dead Cat bounce in my book.)
Keep on truck’n.
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