Traders,
A negative, light volume, and low volatility. The VIX is well below 50 level – something I was slightly surprised to see after recent events and thought it would of remained above it – but we are seeing some consolidation around those pivot levels and nothing is really jolting us out of this band.
The news yesterday of Belgium’s government effectively giving up – and now the Monarchy is working with a “team” to draft the next government – is very shocking indeed. Two small, yet prominent countries have failed – Iceland and now Belgium. However – pay them no mind – we are not them (or many like to believe those are isolated incidents). Remember we only had one mortgage company fail (oh wait – there were 100s), we only had one investment bank fail (oh wait – there were others), etc. I think you get the point. It’s best that we pay attention – regardless if you have ever visited Belgium or had an account with Lehman. These are our times – to ignore them is folly. Just like my saying about math, “You can ignore math, you just can’t avoid math.” – what was it my history teacher always said – “History is doomed to repeat itself.” Maybe not exactly – but we are seeing signs of the boom of the 1920s turn into the depression of the 1930s. We are seeing a new administration push out an old guard Hover type administration and welcome New Deal or should I say “Shovel Ready” plans. Even our Fed chairman is a great study of the Depression – already walking in histories footsteps – yet has he forgotten what he has studied, is it really different?
I think it time we all crack open our history books to see what had happen, what might happen, what to expect, and what to plan for. Sure – it is very true we may dodge a bullet – I am not wise enough to fore see that we can or cannot. However – shouldn’t it be best to be prepared, to know, even to want to know, and what to plan for? Or should we – like most – just bury our head in the sand?
I am criticized for calling the masses asses or using the term sheeple all too often (by several people – not just friends, but strangers alike) – but I ask them not to look to far and see the results of where we have come, our next generation, our knowledge, our wisdom in a collective fashion. I certainly not calling YOU a sheeple – at least if you are reading this you find something of interest in what I have to say – maybe even if you don’t agree with me – I have inspired you to take interest in the events (economy) of our time to learn about it. Sometimes my heavy sarcasm, wit, or rant (if you will) come off hard – why – well I want to piss you off, shake you, wake you up, smack you in the face. I don’t want you to blanketly agree with me – I want you to get mad with my words and challenge yourself to look around, take notice, investigate, become engaged! To “nod” in agreement with me – is nothing more that to “nod” in agreement with what the NYT, FOX, CNN, or any other person has to say – please START asking yourself, others, anyone – questions. What happen to the question WHY? Or HOW? – and WHERE are we going?
To long have we accepted government data and talking heads as gospel. What happened to investigative journalism? FOX, CNN, MSNBC have turned into Left and Right mirrors of each other – very silly flashy editorials and not journalism. The only difference between Colbert, O’Reilly, and Obermann is that Colbert is actually funny – while the other two are rather sad. No Spin – please, Countdown – I am surprised he can even count. Even Mathews – has started playing Softball as to not bruise anyone. It’s not healthy debate of the Right and left, rather it is puff and fluff. Healthy debate is good – but these folks wouldn’t know a debate if it slapped them on the face. Where was investigative journalism with the Administration, Congress, Banks, Mortgages, or any news that has been reported? It’s like the news agencies wait for something to unfold and then in glitzy style – turn it into a show. From court cases to reality TV.
We have become the masses of assess – probably not by choice – but because that is what we are feed. Deep Throat told Woodward in that parking garage 30 years ago “Follow the money!” – that statement was the major and only lead he would give that cracked the Watergate story. However, I would argue that statement is true for anything. Reality TV – follow the money. Cell phones – follow the money. Face Book – follow the money. Why anything move – follow the money. It’s about money – what will the consumer consume and then when we find that juicy morsel of addiction we are going to ram it down their throats in all direction and when we really want to increase our foot print we will smatter the airwaves with more sexy ads for the consumer to consume more.
This wake-up call (or rant) comes full circle. We consume – we are breed by society to consume – our GDP is 2/3rd measure by consumption – the wheels turn because of consumption. But to feed that consumption we must create more than just EARNED INCOME – we must create debt and lots of it to keep the consumption growing. For if we can’t not continue to increase consumption the society will die (or flat-line) – or so we are told and lead to believe.
Even our government, not only leading by example, but through policies and encouragement – expanded the debt. They are continuing to do so. For they do NOT see the system as broken but just deflated and they now want to pump it back up and kept that debt spending alive. Bailout this, bailout that, stimulus this, stimulus that. New Deal this, New Deal that. The government’s role has turned from governing the people to managing business and intervention. However – they do NOT see the business model broken – the proof is their bailout plan – they just want to keep the train going and shovel the debt onto the next generation – who has NO CLUE what is coming.
So I end with this on this X-mass eve. I am not trying to be pessimistic, but rather a realist. Only you know what is best for you and your future – not the government or someone else. X-mass has been turned into a CONSUMER HOLIDAY. Have we forgotten about the MEANING of X-mass? These are NOT the times about gifts, but the time to celebrate health, family, friends. Whether you are a Christian or not – this eve should be a celebration regardless of the state of the economy – for we should not gauge a man or women but what they have, but who they are. Cast a side materialistic wealth this evening – embrace life and the experience of life and the ability to share it with friends and family.
And I believe – with all our faults – that human nature is tenacious and we will survive and move forward – regardless if we learn from it or not.
I will leave you with a quote, which I use to hang on my door when I worked several jobs just to make the rent. It was this quote I read as I left my apartment every day, that pushed me on those days when I didn’t want to move forward. And it is this quote that confirms to me that we will move through this tough time for a better tomorrow.
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan "press on" has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race”
-Calvin Coolidge
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
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