No time for long winded reports or rants today.
X-mass sales were reported this morning on Bloomberg down 20-30% depending on sector (the biggest drop in several decades). After X-mass sales seem to be a little better. Good news – is that oil prices coming off from their highs means about 300-400 billion more capital in this country – the drop at the gas pumps is like a massive tax cut or stimulus check (more money in the wallet and less in the gas tank – means more to save, or unfortunately spend)
GMAC – is now a bank – I am surprised they made the cut. This will give them access to both the TARP and the Discount Window. They have no excuse now to clean up their books and dump bad debt on the government (I really can’t believe I just said that).
While the brick-n-mortar stores saw some serious draw downs – AMAZON performed favorable well. Their sales had been up with last minute buying. The ease of Amazon become more and more a staple method for shopping during the holidays (they handle gift wrapping and gift card, shipping, and the prices are hard to beat.) the question is are they actually increasing holiday sales (as net growth in consumer spending) or really just stealing customers from the traditional stores? This year the answer is clear – they are acquiring more customers from traditional stores, since net sales have been down.
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Futures Premarket
Futures are slightly up on this very low volume day – I heard some people had a hard time getting into the trading floors – because of weather conditions.
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Support / Resistance
INDU sitting at 8500 pivot level
NDX between the 1100 – 1200 level
SPX sitting at the 850 pivot level
RUT just above the 450 pivot level, below 500 resistance
I don’t expect really anything today.
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Conclusion
Looks like a difficult road ahead – the oil prices coming off have probably done the most to HELP holiday sales than anything else. Imagine gas was still at $4 a gallon – I think the holiday sales would of looked incredible worst. It is questionable if they will manage to keep oil spot prices this low – the future prices are still relatively high in comparison. Oil could hit the $30 mark, even if OPEC decides to cut. The problem – OPEC members might rebel because their own nations are hurting and they may continue to sell to keep much needed cash flow pouring in – regardless of what the cartel says.
Enjoy the shopping day – I am sure there are some fantastic deals out there.
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